Wine Performance (H1 2025) USA.
Wine Performance (H1 2025)
Half-year (Jan–Jun 2025):
−8.7% in volume
−8.5% in revenue
(WSWA SipSource Q2 2025, Drinks Intel)
Rolling 12-months (to June 2025):
−7.2% volume
−6.6% revenue
Long-term trend: This marks 52 consecutive months of negative volume growth (over 4 years of decline).
🍷 Channel Performance
On-premise distribution (restaurants, bars, dining):
Accounts for ~56% of U.S. wine sales
Declined −7.0% in volume and −7.2% in revenue in H1 2025
Off-premise (retail, grocery, liquor stores):
Still shrinking, but less steeply than on-premise
Value-focused brands faring slightly better than premium tiers, showing erosion of premiumization
✨ Segment Trends
Sparkling wine is the only bright spot:
Prosecco and Champagne both posted positive half-year growth in 2025, bucking the broader category downturn.
Still niche compared to table wines, but consistently outperforming.
Table wines (the bulk of sales): continue deep structural decline, especially mid-tier and higher-end brands.
📊 Structural Challenges
Premiumization reversal:
Consumers trading down from premium wines, contrasting with spirits where high-end tiers still show resilience.Fragile consumer confidence:
Inflation, tariffs, and supply chain uncertainty are weighing on discretionary spending.Competition from RTDs and spirits:
Younger consumers in particular are shifting away from wine in favor of spirits-based cocktails and RTDs.Demographic shift:
Gen Z and Millennials are under-indexing in wine compared to older cohorts.
🔮 Outlook & Forecasts
Continued headwinds through 2025:
Forecasting models suggest wine declines will not bottom out until at least late 2026, with no near-term stabilization comparable to spirits.Category repositioning required:
Growth may need to come from sparkling wines, innovative formats (cans, RTD hybrids), and approachable price points to re-engage younger drinkers.
✅ Key takeaway:
Wine is in a structural, long-term decline in the U.S., with table wines dragging the category down for more than four years. Sparkling is the only consistent growth segment. Recovery is unlikely before 2026, and the category faces fundamental challenges with consumer demographics, value perception, and competition from spirits and RTDs.
Source: WSWA SipSource Q2 2025 (through June 2025). Values shown are year-to-date (H1) and rolling 12 months. Negative values indicate declines.
Note on sparkling: Prosecco & Champagne reported positive growth in H1 2025 (exact figures not disclosed in the provided data).
